Last Christmas, Alex Karp Was ‘Exceedingly Grateful’ for Palantir Stock Bulls Who Ignored Wall Street's ‘Rusty, Crusty Platitudes.’ How Did Palantirians Do in 2025?

Palantir (PLTR) has been riding the AI boom front and center for the last couple of years now, and outspoken CEO Alex Karp has been promising to defy legacy skepticism and reward true believers with epic financial results every step of the way.

Karp’s holiday message in 2024 was incredibly bold to say the least. He thanked all the bulls who shunned Wall Street’s “rusty, crusty platitudes.” No slide deck, and no numbers. Karp just made a clear point about belief over consensus, and vision over noise.

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Love him or hate him, there’s a lot of hype surrounding Karp and his so-called “Palantirians.”

So as we wrap up 2025, it’s worth asking: Did Palantir’s true believers get the bumper year they were promised?

And more importantly, what’s on the horizon for Palantir in 2026? Let’s take a closer look.

How Did Palantir’s Stock Perform in 2025?

Investors have been wary of Palantir for a long time. It’s always seemed like a bit of a tech market oddball because the business is built on government contracts, laced with ambitious plans for commercial expansion, and has a CEO who sounds more like a philosopher than a corporate headliner.

But believe it or not, the market has finally given in to Palantir’s oddity.

The rising tech giant saw huge trading gains in 2025 that no other software company has matched. Its shares have more than doubled in value this year. In fact, this is actually the third year in a row Palantir has managed to double its price YoY.

No other company of Palantir’s size or billing has managed a multi-year and triple-digit rise like that, and bullish investors seem sure this isn’t just some speculative hype.

After all, the company’s underlying businesses have consistently beaten their earnings targets and expanded revenues at scale. Palantir reported 63% growth in revenue in Q3 alone, and U.S. commercial revenue outpaced that number by even more.

Long story short: Karp has delivered the Palantirians what he promised them in 2024. Investors have ignored the naysayers, held their positions, and let the results speak for themselves.

Right now, it’s hard to deny that things are going incredibly well for Palantir. But before you run out and join the ranks of Alex Karp’s true believers in 2026, it’s important to recognize there are still a few cracks in the Palantir narrative.

Why Are Some Investors Still Skeptics?

Palantir achieved significant gains in 2025. Nobody is arguing against that. However, many skeptics maintain that the company’s valuation is still excessively high by traditional metrics.

Why?

Above all else, the company trades at really high multiples relative to its earnings and sales. Metrics like price-to-sales and forward earnings, prior to expected growth, send up major red flags among many would-be investors.

If you ignore Alex Karp’s charisma and the hype surrounding his company, Palantir’s price appears to have outpaced the fundamentals. There’s a growing chorus of analysts who argue that unless Palantir’s revenue and profit margins accelerate significantly in the next quarter, a substantial value reset is on the horizon.

And this isn’t just about Palantir. Everybody who likes to play the long game has been getting nervous about AI more generally. After all, exponential enthusiasm requires a proportionate and persistent earnings execution to accompany it, right?

That’s why big-time investors like Michael Burry are now actively betting against AI stocks like Palantir. Last month, he bought $9 million in put options against Karp’s company on the basis that AI sales are slowing down too quickly and that the bubble is going to burst in 2026.

So, here’s the trillion-dollar question: Who’s right, and who’s wrong?

Unfortunately, only time will tell. Alex Karp hasn’t just talked the talk in 2025. His company has delivered results and given its bullish investors loads to cheer about, and Palantir has sustained growth this year while doubling its stock yet again.

To Alex Karp’s loyal army of investors, that’s going to feel like a vindication of conviction over conventional wisdom. But experts like Michael Burry have been in this game for a while now, and they know first-hand that momentum markets are unforgiving. Today’s success could instantly turn into tomorrow’s cautionary tale.

Watch this space: Palantir’s got big things on the horizon in 2026. It’s just hard to tell whether they’re going to be big wins or embarrassing losses.

On the date of publication, Nash Riggins did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

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