Oshkosh’s fourth quarter results drew a negative market response, with investors reacting to a mix of segment performances and ongoing cost pressures. Management attributed Q4 revenue momentum to strong demand in the Access and Vocational segments, specifically highlighting robust year-end orders ahead of 2026 price increases. CEO John Pfeifer noted, “We delivered adjusted operating margin of 8.4% on solid revenue, led by a strong finish in both Access and Vocational.” However, unfavorable product mix and higher manufacturing overheads weighed on operating income, with tariffs adding further pressure, especially in the Access business.
Is now the time to buy OSK? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
Oshkosh (OSK) Q4 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $2.69 billion vs analyst estimates of $2.62 billion (2.5% year-on-year growth, 2.6% beat)
- Adjusted EPS: $2.26 vs analyst expectations of $2.31 (2.2% miss)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $284.2 million vs analyst estimates of $281.5 million (10.6% margin, 1% beat)
- Adjusted EPS guidance for the upcoming financial year 2026 is $11.50 at the midpoint, missing analyst estimates by 6.7%
- Operating Margin: 7.9%, in line with the same quarter last year
- Backlog: $14.18 billion at quarter end, in line with the same quarter last year
- Market Capitalization: $10.56 billion
While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.
Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From Oshkosh’s Q4 Earnings Call
- Jamie Cook (Truist): Asked about the disconnect between Oshkosh’s Access outlook and peers’ more optimistic guidance. CEO John Pfeifer emphasized a "balanced approach," citing mixed signals from mega projects versus weak private construction.
- Jerry Revich (Wells Fargo): Inquired about fleet utilization and margin expectations. CEO Pfeifer said connected fleet data shows healthy equipment use, while CFO Matthew Field highlighted adverse price and cost dynamics in early 2026, with improvement expected later in the year.
- Mircea Dobre (Baird): Questioned assumptions behind Access revenue guidance and order visibility. CFO Field explained the first half would be under pressure due to Q4 pull-forward and soft demand, but backlog supports full-year targets.
- Christian Zyla (KeyBanc): Asked if any unusual Access ordering patterns would repeat. CFO Field said Q4 strength was mainly from independents and expects normalization through 2026.
- Chad Dillard (Bernstein): Sought details on tariff impact and price response, including potential changes if tariffs are overturned. CFO Field clarified $200 million in annual tariffs, mostly in Access, and said guidance assumes current rates persist but would adapt if policy shifts.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
In the coming quarters, the StockStory team will be monitoring (1) the pace and effectiveness of tariff pass-through and cost reduction efforts, (2) stabilization or improvement in Access segment demand as construction markets evolve, and (3) continued execution on NGDV and new defense contracts within the Transport segment. Progress on commercializing new AI and robotics technologies will also be a key indicator of future growth potential.
Oshkosh currently trades at $167.01, up from $146.16 just before the earnings. In the wake of this quarter, is it a buy or sell? See for yourself in our full research report (it’s free).
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